You should first check if nuclear winter is actually a thing. The first proponents from the 80's seem to me ideologically motivated and their theory was refuted in 1991 when soot from Kuwait's burning oilfields failed to stay at high altitude. Than around the year 2000 academics made even wilder claims that nuclear winter could be provoked by 100 nukes from an India-Pakistan war which is far less in numbers and more local than the tens of thousands of nukes used in an intercontinental bombardment presumed by 80's models.

Science has problems being self correcting when it relates to ideologically important topics.

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I am quite familiar with the literature around nuclear winter and it seems to me the biggest crux is about the fuel load of cities. Depending on your assumptions there you get a tiny chance for nuclear winter or a very high one. All other parts of the nuclear winter idea seem very likely given our experience with large volcanic eruptions and large wildfires.

If you assume a relatively high, but still reasonable fuel load you can get a small nuclear winter even for a India-Pakistan war.

Also this research is helpful for large asteroid impacts and large volcanic eruptions.

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