I provides a lot of data about the link between energy and growth, how the financial system could crash down in case of a too important recession. I think you can find a lot of valuable information there, I spent quite some time reading on collapse and aggregated some resources there.
(We met in Berlin, but I don't relember if I had shared it, I was supposed to do a project on collapsology at ALLFED)
Hi Corentin, thanks for the links. Will check them out. I read your post a while ago and it was quite interesting. Do you think this is a different strain of collapse ideas? I would have sorted it into the limits to growth or collapse by complexity category.
For instance, the fact that the financial system depends on growth to continue going on (to repay interest), and that a long enough disruption in growth could possibly lead to a collapse of this system. This would of course have many knock-on effects on society, remove a lot of investment in capital energy sources and infrastructure, and, most importantly, have a very disruptive effect on supply chains.
Good question. I think the different schools all include this in some way, but likely would frame it differently. For example, taking the model of Jared Diamond societal response is an important factor and you could argue that decreasing systemic vulnerability is a kind of societal response. However, if looked at it in light of the ideas of Peter Turchin it might be interpreted more as a part of the repeating cycle. Meaning that every civilization creates their own vulnerabilities over time and this is one of the factors that leads to people moving more into zero sum games.
Sounds cool, looking forward to read that! Probably you're already familiar: Gwern might be a good inspiration and as I understand he publishes his living lit reviews and then published updates to them as part of a newsletter like so: https://gwern.substack.com/p/april-2021-newsletter
I scrolled down to suggest the same thing as Max -- it seems like the sort of thing that will languish without periodic signal boosting. That's not to say that I'm not excited about it, just that i will forget.
Maybe roll a summary of the diff into periodic (monthly? quarterly?) blog updates? Git does seem extremely convenient for this.
Thanks for the hint. Yeah that makes sense. However, I don't think a fixed time interval is the best option, as I am not sure yet how quickly the changes will accumulate, so I'll just do it when a good chunk of changes has accumulated.
Hi! Good to know that OpenPhil has done a grant on societal collapse!
I'm sharing here the post I made about energy depletion as a major risk: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wXzc75txE5hbHqYug/the-great-energy-descent-short-version-an-important-thing-ea
I provides a lot of data about the link between energy and growth, how the financial system could crash down in case of a too important recession. I think you can find a lot of valuable information there, I spent quite some time reading on collapse and aggregated some resources there.
(We met in Berlin, but I don't relember if I had shared it, I was supposed to do a project on collapsology at ALLFED)
Nate Hagens is also a very valuable source of info. This 30 minute video provides a lot of inshight on the coming challenges: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/animations
Hi Corentin, thanks for the links. Will check them out. I read your post a while ago and it was quite interesting. Do you think this is a different strain of collapse ideas? I would have sorted it into the limits to growth or collapse by complexity category.
Not sure if this is a different strain of collapse - probably closer to limits to growth.
However, where precisely do you include systemic vulnerability? I'm for instance referring to the work of David Korowicz (which I summarize a bit in my post 2 - http://www.feasta.org/documents/risk_resilience/Tipping_Point.pdf)
For instance, the fact that the financial system depends on growth to continue going on (to repay interest), and that a long enough disruption in growth could possibly lead to a collapse of this system. This would of course have many knock-on effects on society, remove a lot of investment in capital energy sources and infrastructure, and, most importantly, have a very disruptive effect on supply chains.
Good question. I think the different schools all include this in some way, but likely would frame it differently. For example, taking the model of Jared Diamond societal response is an important factor and you could argue that decreasing systemic vulnerability is a kind of societal response. However, if looked at it in light of the ideas of Peter Turchin it might be interpreted more as a part of the repeating cycle. Meaning that every civilization creates their own vulnerabilities over time and this is one of the factors that leads to people moving more into zero sum games.
Sounds cool, looking forward to read that! Probably you're already familiar: Gwern might be a good inspiration and as I understand he publishes his living lit reviews and then published updates to them as part of a newsletter like so: https://gwern.substack.com/p/april-2021-newsletter
Interesting. Will keep that in mind. Though it might be a while before I have enough updates to warrant a whole newsletter for it :D
I scrolled down to suggest the same thing as Max -- it seems like the sort of thing that will languish without periodic signal boosting. That's not to say that I'm not excited about it, just that i will forget.
Maybe roll a summary of the diff into periodic (monthly? quarterly?) blog updates? Git does seem extremely convenient for this.
Thanks for the hint. Yeah that makes sense. However, I don't think a fixed time interval is the best option, as I am not sure yet how quickly the changes will accumulate, so I'll just do it when a good chunk of changes has accumulated.